Minor Corrective Fluctuations In Polyester Prices As Crude Continues To Stay Low

Market Intelligence

Minor Corrective Fluctuations In Polyester Prices As Crude Continues To Stay Low

PTA

PTA prices witnessed minor fluctuations within a narrow range during May first half. The weakness in crude oil prices and thereby its derivatives prices have witnessed price corrections during the first fortnight of May. This has helped marginal negative correction in PTA prices during the period discussed. The cost support to PTA has eased marginally however; as several plants are going to go off stream due to maintenance in coming fortnight, that would offer support the PTA prices. Also, the downstream polyester sector is running at a healthy capacity which would help the trading volume of PTA during the coming fortnight. There are fair chances of lower inventory with the suppliers which would be one of the positive factors would not let the PTA prices to go down much. Current spot market offer prices for PTA are around US$ 630-650 per metric ton CFR CMP but buying prices are around US$ 620-625 per metric ton. Outlook for PTA prices indicates towards a stable price trend in the coming fortnight.

MEG

MEG prices witnessed minor fluctuation during first half of May and slipped down few notches. The weakness in the crude oil prices has helped the MEG prices to rationalise. However, there is few plant shutdowns in Asia in May which may help the MEG prices to recover. However, downstream polyester sector, though performing well, has witnessed price erosion across the products which would not let the feedstock prices to move up significantly. Current spot offer prices of MEG are around US$ 695-705 per MT CFR China and traded prices are around US$ 690-695 per metric ton. MEG prices are expected to exhibit a fluctuating trend and should exhibit stable trend in the coming weeks.

PET Chips

PET chips prices witnessed marginal decline in line with raw material prices during first half of May. It is expected the raw material price scenario would not change drastically in the short term and PET chips price would also follow the same. The demand for the commodity is slack and procurement is mostly need based. Therefore, prices of PET chips would be governed by cost support from raw materials. Current Water Bottle Grade PET chips offer prices are around US$ 905-910 per MT FOB China while deals were done around US$ 900 - 905 per MT FOB China. Fiber grade chips quoted prices are around US$ 880-890 per MT FOB Korea. Chips prices are expected to move in line with raw material prices in the coming weeks.

PSF

PSF prices remained nearly stable during first fortnight of May. Fall in crude oil prices in the last one month has also pulled down polyester raw material prices and therefore, big ticket buyers are asking for better prices. In fact, fiber producers are under stress as raw material prices declined and demand for PSF has been dwindling. Though export offers for PSF were steady, there are discounts available to large buyers. On the other hand inventory level though under control as of now, it is growing gradually. This indicates that there might be some price corrections in PSF in coming month provided raw material prices do not see upward movement. In Chinese local markets, trading activities for PSF has witnessed further decline during the fortnight while the fiber prices have witnessed downward corrections. In Indian local markets, PSF prices were stable but discounts were available. Current offered price for 1.4 denier raw white semi dull PSF is around US$ 1.03 – 1.05 FOB China/Taiwan. CNF India prices are around US$ 1.07 – 1.09 per kg. Prices of PSF are expected to witness some corrections in the coming weeks.

PFY

Polyester Filament Yarn prices witnessed a declining trend during first half of May. The weakness in the Crude oil price and decline in the polyester raw material prices have compelled the filament yarn prices to come down. Also, demand for filament yarn has been dwindling while plant operating rates are above 80% of the rated capacity. This has provided ground for inventory building up in a market where sales has been consistently lesser than the production. Filament yarn buyers have been selectively buying and negotiating for better prices as raw material prices have weakened. In the last fortnight, offered prices of POY, DTY and FDY have gradually dwindled and suppliers have offered discounts for firm deals. Considering the current scenario, polyester filament yarns might witness some more corrections in the coming weeks as cost support eases!. Prices in Chinese local markets have come down marginally while Indian market witnessed a stable price regime. Current quoted price for 115D/36F POY is US$ 1.0-1.01/kg FOB China/Taiwan, 150D/48F POY price is US$ 0.88-0.90/kg FOB, whereas 75D/36F DTY price is US$ 1.38-1.40/kg and 75D/72F FDY price is US$ 1.01 – 1.02/kg FOB China/Taiwan. PFY market forecast indicates that yarn prices would witness marginal corrections as raw material prices have come down.