CAI Retains Cotton Crop Estimates At 360 Lakh Bales

Market Intelligence

CAI Retains Cotton Crop Estimates At 360 Lakh Bales

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its April estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2017-18, beginning from 1^st October 2017. The CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for the ongoing crop year 2017-18 at 360 lakh bales of production figures. The production figures of the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka are estimated to be higher by 2 lakh bales and 50,000 bales respectively while the production in states of Telengana and Andhra Pradesh are now estimated lower by 1.50 lakh bales and 1 lakh bales respectively. This helps retain the crop at the same level as in the pervious estimate made by the CAI in the last month.

While taking stock of the situation, the statistics committee at the Association has projected total cotton supply upto 30^th April 2018 at 347 lakh bales of 170 kgs each. It consists of the arrivals of 311 lakh bales upto 30^th April 2018 and imports which the committee has estimated at 6 lakh bales up to April end.

Further, the committee has estimated cotton consumption for 7 months that is from October 2017 to April 2018 at 189 lakh bales at an average of 27 lakh bales per month while the shipment of cotton till 30^th April 2018 is estimated at 97 lakh bales including 52 lakh bales with textile mills while the remaining 45 lakh bales are estimated to be held by CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners etc.).

The projected yearly balance sheet for the season 2017-18 drawn by the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of season i.e. up to 30^th September 2018 at 410 lakh bales of 170 kgs each, which include opening stock of 30 lakh bales at the beginning of the season. The CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports are estimated to be at 65 lakh bales. The carry-over stock at the end of the 2017-18 season is estimated by the CAI at 21 lakh bales.

It may be noted that the crop size of 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs each is equal to 382.5 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each and the estimated arrival of 311 lakh bales 170 kgs each up to 30^th April 2018 is equal to 330.5 lakh running bales of 160 kgs each.

Around 86% of the crop has already arrived in the market up to 30^th April 2018. In order to avoid confusion and to have more clarity on production, consumption, export and import figures, the statistics committee of the Association has convened another meeting on June 11^th 2018 and the president Atul Ganatra has invited all its 30 crop committee members including CCI, all MNCs and textile mills associations to attend this meeting.