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Corporate Update

Brazil Strengthens Grip On Global Cotton Trade As India’s Imports Rise

• By  Textile Excellence
• October 31, 2026

USDA raises global production and trade forecasts for 2026-27, while Brazil consolidates its position as a major supplier. India’s cotton imports are projected to rise as mills take advantage of the temporary duty waiver.

Brazil is tightening its grip on the global cotton trade. The country is expected to export a record 16 million bales in 2026-27, marking the fourth consecutive year of record shipments, as higher production strengthens its position in international markets. At the same time, India and Vietnam are emerging as larger import buyers, according to the US Department of Agriculture's October report, Cotton: World Markets and Trade.

Global cotton production is forecast at 118 million bales for 2026-27, up more than 600,000 bales from the previous estimate. The increase is largely driven by Brazil and the US, offsetting a smaller crop in Argentina. Brazil's production estimate has been raised by 500,000 bales to 19 million, reflecting improved yields. US production is also revised upwards to 13.44 million bales.

Global cotton trade is projected to increase by nearly 500,000 bales to 44.7 million. Brazil's exports account for much of the upward revision, rising by 500,000 bales to 16 million. Its growing export availability is reshaping sourcing patterns in several major textile-producing countries.

India's imports move higher

India's cotton imports for 2026-27 have been raised by 300,000 bales to 3.3 million. The USDA attributes the increase to mills taking advantage of the temporary suspension of import duties during August, September and October.

India's domestic cotton consumption is forecast at 26.5 million bales, against production of 24 million bales. Exports are projected at 1.5 million bales, while ending stocks are estimated at 10.43 million bales. The import forecast underlines the importance of overseas supplies in meeting mill requirements.

Vietnam's imports have also been raised by 100,000 bales to 8.3 million, reflecting higher consumption. Global cotton consumption is forecast at 123.1 million bales, up nearly 200,000 bales from the previous estimate, with higher use projected in Guatemala, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Turkey turns increasingly to Brazil

The report highlights a significant shift in Turkey's cotton sourcing. Brazil overtook the US as Turkey's leading cotton supplier in 2024-25, as Turkish mills increasingly turned to competitively priced Brazilian and nearby Azerbaijani cotton.

Turkey's cotton imports are forecast at 5 million bales in 2026-27, making it the world's fifth-largest importer. Imports are expected to rise as the country offsets lower domestic production, estimated at 2.4 million bales. Domestic consumption is forecast at 6.8 million bales, unchanged from the previous year.

However, Turkey's textile and apparel industry continues to face pressure from high inflation and energy costs, which have raised operating expenses. Mills are looking for lower-cost cotton to remain competitive.

Turkey's own cotton exports are forecast to fall nearly 50% to 600,000 bales because of reduced supplies. The European Union, Bangladesh and India remain among its key markets. Weaker EU orders and growing competition from China, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam are also weighing on Turkish textile exports. Lower domestic purchasing power has further affected demand for cotton products, particularly garments. Mills are reporting reduced capacity utilisation, with some facilities closing or relocating to lower-cost production bases.

Prices ease across major markets

Cotton prices have weakened since the previous USDA report. ICE cotton futures fell by around 8 cents to approximately 80 cents per pound.

Between September 8 and October 6, the Cotlook A-Index declined 4.5 cents to 91.5 cents per pound. India's Shankar-6 spot price fell 6.3 cents to 86.5 cents, while China's benchmark declined 6.1 cents to 116.6 cents. Brazilian and Pakistani prices also moved lower.

Global ending stocks are forecast to increase by more than 800,000 bales to 70.7 million, with higher stocks in India, the US and Uzbekistan contributing to the rise. The USDA has also lowered its forecast for the US 2026-27 season-average farm price by 1 cent to 77 cents per pound.

The October outlook points to a market with greater export availability, particularly from Brazil, and stronger import demand in key textile-producing countries. For mills, sourcing decisions will increasingly depend on the relative cost and availability of cotton from competing origins, alongside currency movements and freight costs.

The October outlook points to a market with greater export availability, particularly from Brazil, and stronger import demand in key textile-producing countries. For mills, sourcing decisions will increasingly depend on the relative cost and availability of cotton from competing origins, alongside currency movements and freight costs.